The Oscars this year is a mix-mash of the usual more niche content and some cool little surprise inclusions along with the more surprising snubs that have appeared. I think the final choices aren’t too surprising going in this year but there are some chances for some upsets, so here are the choices for my predicted winners and who I’d like to see win:
Music (Original Song)
“Man or Muppet” from The Muppets
“Real in Rio” from Rio
Most Likely to Win: “Man or Muppet” – Unfortunately, the Academy thought there were few great songs this year and not only narrowed down the list to two but also are not allowing for any performances. That’s a shame, but at the very least, one of my favorite songs of the year that was snubbed by the Golden Globes appears here as the frontrunner, ‘Man or Muppet’. There really is no true scientific reason other than a nostalgic factor probably running more in favor for this song (and a possible Muppets’ speech).
Wie’s Choice: “Man or Muppet” – However, for myself, I believe ‘Man or Muppet’ is a brilliant song that was the highlight of the Muppets both because of how smart the song is in it’s humor and implementation. It’s a bravo moment for Jason Segal, the Muppets, and song-writing.
Music (Original Score)
The Adventures of Tintin – John Williams
The Artist – Ludovic Bource
Hugo – Howard Shore
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – Alberto Iglesias
War Horse – John Williams
Most Likely to Win: The Artist – There’s no doubt about it, The Artist has a strong lead coming into the Oscars with nearly a sweep of wins for it’s music in the previous award ceremonies before it. That isn’t to say it isn’t against some heavyweight musical cometition from the multi-Oscar winning Williams to Shore. However, according to the momentum, The Artist is most likely a lock.
Wie’s Choice: The Artist – That isn’t to say that the award is unfounded though. The silent film format makes every other section of the film that much more important and the music in the film is no slouch, having to fill in moments devoid of dialogue and emotionally carrying the film. It’s a grand spectrum of music that is full of great themes, rarely becomes grating, and thoughtfully made through it’s era. The only other soundtrack that I believe comes close is War Horse, a classic Williams score that is overbearing but filled with strong, memorable themes.
Actor in a Leading Role
Demián Bichir in A Better Life
George Clooney in The Descendants”
Jean Dujardin in The Artist
Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt in Moneyball
Most Likely to Win: Jean Dujardin – The battle is mainly between the former frontrunner, George Clooney, and the current favorite, Jean Dujardin. Critics and entertainment journalists had favored Clooney early in the race with rave reviews for his role in The Descendants and what I believe to be his general likability as a speaker and actor. However, the SAG awards changed much of the momentum shift to Dujardin who has slyly (at least according to press outlets) been gaining steam from Cannes to the Golden Globes when the two nominees were in separate categories. After a fairly clean sweep thus far, it looks like Dujardin is the man of the hour to beat.
Wie’s Choice: Jean Dujardin – Dujardin is my choice for Best Actor because I believe he readily deserves it. Working with no dialogue may seem artificially like an easy cop-out but resigning to this line of reasoning without watching Dujardin’s performance is missing out on a fantastic performance of emotions that never feel too far-out or cheesy. In fact, it’s quite the opposite, with only the occasional sound cue and a beautiful soundtrack, Dujardin expresses himself with depth and elegance without the benefit of dialogue, coming from his body language and facial expressions are which are mainly fantastic. Coming from a mainly comedy background has served him well as his looks definitely require a bit of exaggerated work but understanding how to limit himself . I considered Dujardin a modern-day Chaplin and Gable, a mix between the classical Hollywood leading man with the resonating faces and emotions of a silent actor. His performance in The Artist was nothing short of magnificent.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Kenneth Branagh in My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill in Moneyball
Nick Nolte in Warrior
Christopher Plummer in Beginners
Max von Sydow in Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Most Likely to Win: Christopher Plummer – Plummer is the favorite going into the Oscar’s for the simple reason that Plummer has swept all the awards during these past few months. Little else can be said other than the fact that this award is Plummer’s to lose with only Hill and Branagh making up the closest two other roles that might sweep the award away from him (along with the Academy’s inclination to award controversial and great ‘changing’ roles from the norm).
Wie’s Choice: Christopher Plummer – And surely, there is little reason to not believe he won’t win because of a bad performance. Plummer gives quite an eccentric but caring role in Beginners as a pivotal father figure who represents a love and a lie that has been lacking. Plummer is so oddly gleeful and fun in this role that it’s hard not to be taken away with his role in the film. Although I believe his competition is pretty close to the pretty revelatory dramatic role for Hill in Moneyball, I believe Plummer wins out based on the amount of emotional turns that the character convincingly goes through and carries throughout the film.
Actress in a Leading Role
Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis in The Help
Rooney Mara in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn
Most Likely to Win: Meryl Streep – The contest is currently hot between Meryl Streep and Viola Davis who have both won in various contests one after the other. The interesting factor here is divided into two trains of thought. One side could attest to the fact that Davis’ close counterpart, Spencer, could potentially win an award and spread the award to another film. The other school of thought could be that Streep is more of a shoe-in as she always has been and that this role probably not being her finest performance, would go to Davis. I do think that the Academy will go with the former school of thought personally and go with Streep as the final choice.
Wie’s Choice: Viola Davis : But saying that, I believe that Davis deserves the award much more than Streep. Unfortunately for Streep, while her Thatcher was convincing and multifaceted, I felt that the film unfortunately confined her role too heavily on her later years rather than her much more interesting middle years. In the end, then, I have to go with Davis who put in a great overall performance in The Help as a serious and hopeful lead and anchored the film with sincerity and a great performance.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Bérénice Bejo in The Artist
Jessica Chastain in The Help
Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer in The Help
Most Likely to Win: Octavia Spencer – This category is much like Plummer’s; it’s Octavia Spencer’s to lose. She has swept the awards starting from the Golden Globes to the BAFTAs and has the momentum going into the Oscars as the frontrunner. There are some interesting curveballs in here such as McCarthy that could shift the votes but comedic roles have rarely done well at the Oscars.
Wie’s Choice: Octavia Spencer – And much like Plummer, Spencer is my favorite performance of the grouping here in who I would choose as the best supporting actress this year as well. There are some terrific performances in here all around from Bejo’s wonderful rising star act in The Artist to McCarthy’s fairly hilarious performance in Bridesmaid but oddly enough, Spencer was both the funniest and sincerest performance here that never outshone her co-star, Davis, but complemented the film and the performances wonderfully in The Help. Truly, these two actresses were the best aspects of The Help because of such strong performances.
Animated Feature Film
A Cat in Paris – Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli
Chico & Rita – Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal
Kung Fu Panda 2 – Jennifer Yuh Nelson
Puss in Boots – Chris Miller
Rango -Gore Verbinski
Most Likely to Win: Rango – This year was a weaker year in animation greats. That isn’t to say many of them didn’t make money (Cars 2 was quite a cash maker for Pixar) but the quality was not up to par. The nominations this year are a mixture of foreign affairs and some weaker spin-offs for the most part. The Golden Globe winner, Tintin, isn’t even nominated here so the most likely winner is Rango, which won the Critics Choice Award, Annie’s and BAFTA.
Wie’s Choice: Rango – And it isn’t a terrible choice either. Rango is a great all-around film, and it’s strange dark humor and uniqe art style take on a wild west story was quirky but consistent enough to leave a good impression by film’s end. In a year in which most animation studios took to established properties and played it safe with sequels or spin-offs, Rango is definitely the most original and interesting film out of all of them. (A surprising omission I would gladly have replaced Kung Fu Panda 2 or Puss in Boots is the enjoyable Arthur Christmas.)
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
The Descendants – Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash
Hugo – Screenplay by John Logan
The Ides of March – Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon
Moneyball – Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin. Story by Stan Chervin
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – Screenplay by Bridget O’Connor & Peter Straughan
Most Likely to Win: Moneyball – The initial frontrunner, The Descendants, has turned into bigger match between Moneyball and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, each of these two films winning an award each for their screenplays. However, the edge seems to go more towards the critics’ favorite Moneyball than the much less buzzed (in the US) Tinker Tailor. Although I do expect a possible upset from The Descendants, the much rewritten and tinkered with screenplay of Moneyball should win the hearts of Academy members.
Wie’s Choice: Moneyball – Out of these grouping of nominees, I think the answer becomes a bit more simple and headed to give the award to Moneyball. The film is quick and fascinating for a film mainly about statistics and managerial teams bickering amongst one another. Even more interesting is how much trouble the screenplay has gone through with rewrites after rewrites. Much like The Social Network, Sorkin’s fascinating touch with complicated figures make for great content.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
The Artist – Written by Michel Hazanavicius
Bridesmaids – Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
Margin Call – Written by J.C. Chandor
Midnight in Paris – Written by Woody Allen
A Separation – Written by Asghar Farhadi
Most Likely to Win: Midnight in Paris – On the other hand, unlike the Adapted Screenplay competition, the Original Screenplay fight seems a bit more clear as Midnight in Paris seems to be the critics favorite in terms of writing and overall script. It’s won itself a Golden Globe over Moneyball and The Artist along with the Academy’s heavy respect for veteran Allen with this opportunity being the best to call him up on a favorite film.
Wie’s Choice: Midnight in Paris – Although The Artist would be a close second, it’s understandable why Midnight in Paris would win out due to Allen’s theoretical and witty writing that never lets up in Paris. Since the main character literally is an embodiment of Allen himself, he holds little back in making his main character a chatty, confused and intellectual man that will rarely lets up and makes for quite an entertaining package. Along with all the heavy literary figures Allen packs into the film, Midnight in Paris is a delightful script that is fun yet deep without completely losing the audience.
Directing
The Artist – Michel Hazanavicius
The Descendants – Alexander Payne
Hugo – Martin Scorsese
Midnight in Paris – Woody Allen
The Tree of Life – Terrence Malick
Most Likely to Win: The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius) – It really has been The Artist‘s award season this year as the film has captured the hearts of critics and nostalgics alike. The nominees are filled with some fascinating competition, the two biggest coming from Payne and Scorsese. As Scorsese is most likely not to get much love in any other categories, some are speculating that the Academy may award him with another Hollywood favorite that plays to the hearts of film buffs. However, as many have also stated, the DGA gave Hazanavicius the award (along with nearly every other major award so far) which has rarely lost (only six times has it been different since 1948).
Wie’s Choice: The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius)- As much as I have respect for Scorsese’s work in Hugo and really using 3D in a unique way to the film’s effect, it’s difficult for me to go against the brave and brilliant idea and direction of The Artist. Each actor, whether or not they may have initially seemed right for their roles, comes off as emotional and fully featured along with the intelligence to using the locale, the score and the camera in such unique ways. I feel that Hazanavicius really does go hand-in-hand with the film’s success and should be rewarded as such.
Best Picture
The Artist – Thomas Langmann, Producer
The Descendants – Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Producers
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close – Scott Rudin, Producer
The Help – Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, Producers
Hugo – Graham King and Martin Scorsese, Producers
Midnight in Paris – Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, Producers
Moneyball – Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, Producers
The Tree of Life – Nominees to be determined
“War Horse” Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers
Most Likely to Win: The Artist – Similar to the Best Director award, this competition is a three-way fight between Hugo, The Descendants and The Artist. And much like the Director award, The Artist has won the Producer and Director’s awards, which has only lost three times in the past two decades. The other factor here is the anti-sentimental feeling against The Artist that has been growing a bit in the press whether it’s from the unnecessary attention given to Uggie the Dog or the reports of it’s style offending and ‘tricking’ audiences. However, it really is The Artist’s night to lose.
Wie’s Choice: The Artist – Is it much of a surprise? The Artist was my favorite film of 2011 because not only was it a great and clever film, it showcased the important aspect of film that should never be forgotten – the importance of great content even with the most minimalist of design. The fact that it’s black-and-white and silent are not just gimmicky choices; they are integral to the plot and the purpose of the film. No one part is done accidentally or without much thought and should be more than just nostalgic touches, it is a celebration of film and what film should be – a medium for great storytelling unique to itself.
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